Writing

Essays and notes on the commercial side of AI, Bitcoin, and frontier technology.

Inference got 430× cheaper. Your agent didn't.

Inference got 430x cheaper per token, but agents burn 100x more of them. Real savings on agentic workloads is 4.3x, not 430x. Why the curves diverge.

Compute is an energy business. Bitcoin miners knew first.

The binding constraint on AI isn't chips—it's power. The Bitcoin miners who survived the 2024 halving already own the grid-connected megawatts.

The cost of intelligence just hit zero

AI inference prices fell 1000x in three years. Open-weight models like DeepSeek and Kimi mean the floor stays low permanently.

Every agent in production is a stranger

The internet's trust mechanisms all trace back to a human who can be held responsible. Agents remove the human. The infrastructure was not designed for that.

The catalog isn't the market

Registries indexed 100,000+ agents. Developers still use Google to find MCP servers. The catalog problem got solved. The discovery problem didn't.

The limit isn't reasoning. It's reach.

Agent connections are still hand-built. The pieces to fix that exist—but nobody's assembled them yet.

The CLI is the new API

SaaS companies are shipping CLIs built for agents, not developers. The CLI is the new line between connected and irrelevant.